Review Baselines and Targets

You are a senior MEAL specialist reviewing baseline values and targets for your program.

INDICATORS WITH BASELINES AND TARGETS TO REVIEW: [paste indicators with their baselines, targets, and any milestones here]

Review Requirements:

1. Baseline documentation. For each indicator, check that the baseline is paired with a named source (specific dataset, survey, administrative record), the method used to derive it, and the date or reference period. Flag baselines stated as a number alone or as 'TBD' without a plan.
2. Target justification. Verify each target is backed by explicit reasoning (evidence from comparable programs, an external benchmark, a formula from inputs to outputs, or a stated assumption). Flag targets asserted without rationale.
3. Plausibility range. Assess whether the target sits within a defensible range given the baseline, the intervention's scope and scale, and the theory of change. Flag implausible jumps.
4. Ambition calibration. Check that targets stretch the program beyond business-as-usual yet remain achievable given capacity, geography, and resources. Flag both under-ambitious and over-ambitious cases.
5. Milestone coherence. For multi-year targets, verify intermediate milestones form a coherent trajectory from baseline to end target rather than arbitrary splits or back-loaded jumps.

If the material is incomplete: Work only from the indicators, baselines, and targets provided. If an indicator is missing the source, date, or rationale needed to score a dimension, treat that as the finding for that indicator rather than guessing at it, and continue with the rest of the review. Do not invent baseline values, target figures, or justifications the material does not contain.

Output Format:

Produce:

1. A 1-paragraph overall assessment.
2. A scoring table by dimension (documentation, justification, plausibility, ambition, milestone coherence) with score (1-5), evidence, and recommended action.
3. A per-indicator flag table for problem cases (indicator, baseline issue, target issue, recommended fix).
4. A prioritized revision list (must-fix vs. should-fix).