Baseline

What Is a Baseline?

A baseline is the initial conditions data collected at the start of a project to establish a reference point for measuring change. It documents the state of indicators before project activities begin, providing the "before" measurement needed to assess whether and how much change has occurred by the end of the project.

A baseline value must be collected prior to the start of project activities to serve as a true starting point. Once determined, the baseline value and date collected are recorded in the Indicator Performance Tracking Table (IPTT) or donor equivalent. Change measures need a justified reference. Some output counts and post-test targets do not need a measured baseline.

Why Does a Baseline Matter?

A baseline allows comparison of initial and later conditions, but before-after change alone does not establish program causation. A valid post-test randomized comparison can estimate a causal effect without a baseline. Initial-condition data can also help teams set and revise realistic targets.

Check documentation and timing in the applicable funding agreement. Record the value, date, measurement protocol, and any limitations in the project's measurement plan.

When Should a Baseline Be Conducted?

Measure pre-intervention conditions before the relevant population is exposed, with seasonality considered. Do not rely on a universal three- or six-month grace period. If collection is late, disclose exposure and assess defensible pre-intervention records or reconstruction.

Once the baseline value for an indicator has been determined, record the value and date collected in the 'baseline value' column of the Indicator Plan. Projects should document the baseline values in the Indicator Performance Tracking Table, or IPTT, or donor equivalent.

Project decision makers can set provisional targets from existing evidence and refine them through an agreed process after baseline collection. These targets should be informed by baseline results, the project timeline, human and financial resources dedicated to the project, and the permissiveness or difficulty of the context, including levels of uncertainty.

How Does a Baseline Appear in a Proposal?

A proposal should explain which indicators need initial-condition data and how it will obtain them. Use provisional targets with explicit assumptions when baseline evidence is unavailable, and agree how revisions will be approved. Avoid inventing historical values or treating missing baselines as zero. Record source, population, date, and comparability for any existing data. Pair with MEL plans and indicator reference sheets.

Method Source

World Bank and IDB, Impact Evaluation in Practice, second edition (2016), chapters 4 and 15. This is methodological guidance, not a funding requirement.