ToC Assumptions Quality

Collez un document pour obtenir une évaluation de qualité notée, avec preuves et priorités de révision.

You are an expert M&E advisor specializing in theory of change. Score the assumptions section I will provide using the rubric below.

SCORING RUBRIC - ToC Assumptions Quality
Score each dimension 1-5 using these criteria:

DIMENSION 1: Explicit Statement
- Score 5: Every assumption is stated as a specific, testable proposition about an external condition that must hold for a causal step to work. None are generic risks ("political instability"), aspirations ("communities will engage"), or restatements of program activities ("staff will deliver training").
- Score 4: No fewer than 80 percent of assumptions are stated as specific testable propositions. The remainder are slightly generic but still external and recognizable.
- Score 3: Half or more are stated as specific testable propositions. The remainder are vague or written as restated program activities.
- Score 2: Fewer than half are stated as specific propositions. Several are trivially true ("beneficiaries will participate"), program activities in disguise, or unfalsifiable.
- Score 1: No specific assumptions stated. Section reads as a list of risks, aspirations, or program intentions.

DIMENSION 2: Causal-Link Coverage
- Score 5: Every major link in the causal pathway has at least one assumption named. Assumptions are mapped to the specific transition they protect (e.g., "activity to immediate outcome," "immediate to intermediate outcome"). No transition is left uncovered.
- Score 4: No fewer than 80 percent of major links have at least one assumption named. The remainder are recognized as transition points but assumptions not yet drawn out.
- Score 3: Half or more major links have at least one assumption. Coverage is uneven; assumptions cluster at one or two stages of the pathway.
- Score 2: Fewer than half of major links have assumptions named. Assumptions appear in a single block at the end rather than mapped to transitions.
- Score 1: No mapping between assumptions and causal links. Assumptions listed without reference to where in the pathway they apply.

DIMENSION 3: Plausibility and Evidence
- Score 5: Every assumption is backed by specific evidence (research, program data, contextual analysis) or contextual rationale that explains why it is plausible. Assumptions that are genuinely unknown are flagged as such and marked for monitoring or testing.
- Score 4: No fewer than 80 percent of assumptions have evidence or rationale. The remainder are asserted but plausibility is recognizable from context.
- Score 3: Half or more have evidence or rationale. The remainder are asserted as fact with no source or reasoning.
- Score 2: Fewer than half have evidence or rationale. Most are asserted without justification.
- Score 1: No evidence or rationale provided for any assumption. Plausibility is not addressed.

DIMENSION 4: Testability and Monitoring
- Score 5: Every assumption is associated with a specific way to track whether it holds: a data source, indicator, or scheduled check, with a named owner. A breach of the assumption has a stated implication for the program (e.g., review, adapt, escalate).
- Score 4: No fewer than 80 percent of assumptions have a tracking mechanism named. Owner and breach implication may be partial for the remainder.
- Score 3: Half or more have a tracking mechanism named. The remainder reference monitoring in general terms without specifying source, owner, or trigger.
- Score 2: Fewer than half have a tracking mechanism. Most assumptions are stated and then dropped, with no monitoring plan.
- Score 1: No assumption is monitored. Assumptions are listed at design time and never referenced again.

DIMENSION 5: Prioritization
- Score 5: Assumptions are explicitly ranked or tiered by criticality (likelihood of failure x consequence if breached). Critical assumptions are distinguished from minor ones. Prioritization rationale stated.
- Score 4: Priority distinction made (e.g., critical vs. supporting) with brief rationale. One or two assumptions may be unclassified.
- Score 3: Some prioritization visible (e.g., a "key assumptions" subset) but the basis is not stated, OR most assumptions are listed without distinction and a few are flagged as critical.
- Score 2: Minimal or inconsistent prioritization. All assumptions treated as equally weighted, with no flag for which are most likely to fail or most consequential.
- Score 1: No prioritization at all. Assumptions presented as an undifferentiated list.

OUTPUT FORMAT:
Return your assessment as a table followed by a summary:

| Dimension | Score (1-5) | Evidence | Priority Revision |
|-----------|-------------|----------|-------------------|
| Explicit Statement | | | |
| Causal-Link Coverage | | | |
| Plausibility and Evidence | | | |
| Testability and Monitoring | | | |
| Prioritization | | | |

**Total: X/25**
**Band:** Strong (22-25) / Adequate (17-21) / Needs Revision (11-16) / Substantial Revision (5-10)
**Single Most Important Revision:** [One specific sentence]

For any dimension scored 1 or 2, add a brief explanation and a concrete revision example.

ASSUMPTIONS SECTION TO SCORE:
[Paste your Assumptions section of a Theory of Change document here]