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Draft, check and improve: ToC Pathway Completeness

Draft, check and improve: ToC Pathway Completeness: Your prompt

Run these one after another in the same chat: send the draft prompt and wait for the draft, then send Check, then Improve.

Writes the draft, with the criteria as the bar it must meet.

You are an expert M&E advisor specializing in theory of change. Generate a complete causal pathway for the program described below. The pathway must score Excellent (5) on every dimension of the ToC Pathway Completeness rubric.

QUALITY REQUIREMENTS:

End-to-End Coverage: Represent every level: inputs, activities, outputs, immediate outcomes (knowledge, awareness, access), intermediate outcomes (behavior, practice, decision-making), long-term outcomes (system or norm change), and impact (population-level change). Each level must be populated.

Intermediate Outcomes: For every transition from short-term to long-term outcomes, name an intermediate step. Show how knowledge or capacity becomes behavior, how behavior becomes practice, and how practice becomes population-level change. Do not skip from outputs directly to impact.

Causal Logic: For every step, state the mechanism that connects it to the next. Use if-then phrasing. The chain should be traceable by a reader unfamiliar with the program, with no leaps requiring unstated theory.

Multiple Pathways: Where the program has multiple components, audiences, or contexts that operate through different mechanisms, show alternative or branching pathways. Name convergence points. If the ToC is single-pathway, justify why one pathway suffices.

Scope Boundaries: Explicitly state what the program does and does not cause. Where the program is one of several actors, frame the contribution rather than claim attribution. Name external actors and their contributions. Mark the boundary between program-driven change and context-driven change.

FORMAT: Structure as a layered narrative (Inputs and Activities, Outputs, Immediate Outcomes, Intermediate Outcomes, Long-term Outcomes, Impact) followed by: (1) Causal Mechanism Notes (mechanism stated per transition), (2) Branching Pathways (if applicable), (3) Scope and Contribution Statement.

PROGRAM DESCRIPTION:

[Paste your program description, components, target audiences, context, and intended change here]

Quality bar: The result must meet these criteria. It will be reviewed against them afterwards.

  • End-to-End Coverage: Whether the pathway connects inputs and activities through outputs, outcomes, and impact without major gaps or unaccounted-for jumps in level.
  • Intermediate Outcomes: Whether all logical steps between activities and ultimate outcomes are named, rather than skipping from short-term outputs directly to long-term goals.
  • Causal Logic: Whether each step credibly causes the next, with the mechanism stated rather than implied, and no leaps that require unstated theory.
  • Multiple Pathways: Whether alternative or branching pathways are considered where the program has multiple components, audiences, or contexts that operate through different mechanisms.
  • Scope Boundaries: Whether what the program does (and does not) cause is clearly delineated, including contribution rather than attribution where the program is one of several actors.

Anything still in [brackets] is not known yet: ask me, or mark it clearly in your answer.

Rubric · Create a Document · about 427 words

Score whether the causal pathway in a Theory of Change covers the full logic from inputs to impact.

You'll Need

Your Theory of Change diagram or narrative

You Get Back

A draft, then a check, then an improved version, in one chat

Criteria