# Evaluation planning case: Northstar Pathways

**Fictional case.** Northstar Pathways is an invented rural youth livelihoods program. All organizations, locations, figures, and records below are fictional and supplied only for this exercise.

## Request

Draft an evaluation TOR and questions for the steering group. The current request email says the evaluation is for changes to the next cycle, which starts November 16, 2026. The grant summary says the purpose is to decide whether to expand the model to three new districts in 2027. No one is identified as the final decision owner. The request email asks for a final report by November 10, 2026. The grant summary asks for the report by January 31, 2027.

## Source NP-01: Program brief

Northstar enrolled 240 participants across three districts in 2025. The program tracks attendance but did not collect a baseline measure of income or employment. The participant register has 240 IDs and district fields. The program manager reports that 174 participants attended at least 8 of 10 sessions. There is no routine follow-up after the final session.

## Source NP-02: Draft results framework

| ID | Result or indicator | Definition / source | Stated value |
|---|---|---|---:|
| NP-O1 | Participants complete training | Attendance at 8 of 10 sessions; register | 174 of 240 (72.5%) |
| NP-OC1 | Participants increase income by 20% | Follow-up income compared with baseline; no baseline or follow-up tool is listed | Target: 70% |
| NP-OC2 | Participants obtain paid work | Number in paid work six months after training; no follow-up records | Target: 60% |

The framework describes NP-OC1 as a six-month outcome. A note below the table says the 70% target is to be reported at the end of training.

## Source NP-03: Steering group notes

- “Show the impact of the model and recommend scale-up.”
- “Use a comparison group if possible; all participants should still receive the full program.”
- “We need an answer before the next cycle begins.”
- No comparison group is currently identified. No random assignment is planned.
- The program manager can share attendance records. The manager has not confirmed whether participant contact details may be shared.

## Source NP-04: Resources and schedule

- Available evaluator effort: 12 working days total, including design, fieldwork, analysis, and reporting.
- Available interview window: October 26 to November 6, 2026.
- Request email: final report due November 10, 2026.
- Grant summary: final report due January 31, 2027.
- Steering group meeting: November 12, 2026.
- A separate planning note proposes 120 participant interviews, 30 employer interviews, and a comparison survey in all three districts. No sample frame, survey instrument, or travel plan is attached.

## User task

Using only these supplied sources, produce a prioritized evaluation question and method matrix, a draft TOR that can be acted on, and a short review/change record. Cite source IDs beside material facts. Separate what can be designed now from decisions or permissions that must be resolved. Identify incompatible purposes, timing, resources, and claims. Do not make up baseline data, comparison evidence, participant consent, or impact findings. If a decision is needed before a defensible TOR can be finalized, state the smallest decision set and provide a bounded interim option.